Right now, there is no greater national interest than protecting Indians from certain death.
India’s vaccine plan has failed miserably. The nation is scurrying as a result of a contemptuous attitude toward the second Covid-19 outbreak, which has raged uncontrollably, and a false conviction that indigenously created shots would be up to the task of inoculating a billion adults. Pfizer Inc., Moderna Inc., and Johnson & Johnson are all working on getting supply. However, their order books are completely full. However, with barely 3% of the population properly vaccinated, India will be unable to achieve herd immunity. At the very least, New Delhi can ensure that the next coronavirus outbreak does not kill hundreds of people every day due to a lack of hospital beds and oxygen.
As long as officials are realistic, there is a way out of the crisis: obtaining vaccines from regional rival China. They aren’t as effective as cutting-edge products and may not provide a path to herd immunity. After making Sinopharm the mainstay of its vaccination programme, Seychelles observed an alarming increase in illnesses.
New Delhi is dealing with a number of challenges, ranging from long-standing territorial conflicts to a strong mistrust of Beijing’s Belt-and-Road initiative. Bilateral trade is substantially skewed in China’s favour. The flood of low-cost widgets irritates India’s policymakers to no end. Pruning imports and investments from the People’s Republic has been an unspoken goal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s quest for self-sufficiency since horrific skirmishes along their Himalayan border a year ago.
Taking up the Chinese vaccines would be cost-effective. The $14 per Sinovac dose that Indonesia is said to have paid may no longer be possible. But what if India paid $30 for each shot? Vaccinating 25% of the world’s 1 billion adults would cost $15 billion, somewhat more than the central bank’s recent payout to the government. It’s a reasonable investment for guaranteed stockpiles and early supply — as long as Beijing is careful not to link vaccine access to its own geopolitical objectives. This will leave New Delhi with no space for manoeuvre.
Both parties must be cautious in their messaging. Some governments and municipalities have issued tenders that exclude countries that share a land border with India, a code term meant to keep Sinopharm and Sinovac out. Vaccine purchases will be very visible and significant additions to China’s $38 billion yearly trade gap. Modi can overcome this barrier by urging consumers to reject Chinese-made phones. It’s a ruse, but the idea of making a sacrifice for a national purpose may appeal to the people. Before the outbreak, Indians were spending $3.5 billion per year on Chinese smartphone components.
